Federal forces near Mekelle and the Ethiopia–Eritrea rupture raise Horn of Africa spillover risk.

WHY IT HELDThe active U.S.–Iran and Saudi–Houthi confrontation, maritime exposure and durable military commitments remain the core pressure. The FlyDubai cockpit attack caused major aviation disruption and new retaliatory rhetoric, but no public evidence establishes Iranian direction or state sponsorship. It therefore adds no score. Restored Saudi export routes and diplomatic channels remain partial offsets. The score holds at 96.

STABILIZING SIGNALSRepatriation flights began and regional export capacity remained partly restored; diplomatic channels remain open without an implemented ceasefire.

UNCERTAINTYThe motive and sponsorship of the cockpit attack remain unknown, and public claims of an Iranian link are unsupported.

WHAT MOVES NEXTInvestigative evidence on the aviation incident, implemented ceasefire terms, renewed regional strikes or direct entry by another state.

WHY IT HELDCurrent acute pressure remains high: Russian strikes disrupted three Kyiv bridges and Ukraine reported another large Russian aerial attack, while Russia reported hundreds of intercepted Ukrainian drones. These developments reinforce the existing active-war baseline rather than establishing a new theater or posture change. Ukraine’s stated readiness for an energy and Black Sea ceasefire is a meaningful counter-signal, but Russia has not accepted it. The score holds at 93.

STABILIZING SIGNALSUkraine publicly accepted the concept of a combined energy and Black Sea ceasefire and repeated its offer of an unconditional front-line ceasefire.

UNCERTAINTYNeither side’s interception, stockpile or damage claims are independently complete, and no ceasefire has been implemented.

WHAT MOVES NEXTRussian acceptance or rejection of the partial-truce proposal, further infrastructure attacks, and any verified nuclear posture change.

WHY IT HELDNo equivalent new launch, force movement or direct clash was verified after the October 1 baseline. Korean and cross-strait structural pressures persist, while the older North Korean test continues to decay as an acute signal. The score holds at 59.

STABILIZING SIGNALSSeoul’s dialogue offer and the U.S. assessment that a near-term Taiwan invasion is less likely remain active counter-signals.

UNCERTAINTYNorth Korea’s claimed missile performance remains incompletely verified and current force intentions are not directly observable.

WHAT MOVES NEXTAdditional launches, force movements, coercive exercises or resumed formal talks.

WHY IT HELDThe acknowledged October 1 Pakistani strikes remain acute and the underlying cross-border confrontation remains active. October 2 reporting added competing allegations about militant meetings but no independently verified new strike round, retaliation or stand-down. Unsubstantiated claims are not counted as fresh escalation. The score holds at 58.

STABILIZING SIGNALSNo additional acknowledged strike cycle was verified after the October 1 baseline, and regional mediation remains available.

UNCERTAINTYPakistan presented no public evidence for its militant-meeting allegation, while casualty and target claims from the strike round remain disputed.

WHAT MOVES NEXTVerified Afghan retaliation, another Pakistani strike cycle, independently supported militant evidence or a monitored stand-down.

WHY IT MOVEDCurrent acute pressure increased materially. Federal-aligned forces reported capturing Milazat, about 20 kilometers from Mekelle; banks and shops closed in anticipation of fighting; and TPLF leaders signaled continued resistance. Ethiopia closed its embassy in Eritrea and expelled diplomats, while Eritrea severed relations. The rapid advance toward the Tigray capital and widening interstate rupture raise the risk of a larger Horn conflict. Unverified Addis drone attribution remains excluded. The score rises from 48 to 55.

STABILIZING SIGNALSThe African Union urged maximum restraint, and the Pretoria framework remains the principal formal route back to de-escalation.

UNCERTAINTYReuters could not independently verify the reported Milazat video or the claimed Addis drone attacks, and external-support allegations remain disputed.

WHAT MOVES NEXTCombat in Mekelle, independently verified cross-border support, Eritrean military entry, activation of Pretoria mechanisms or a monitored halt.

WHY IT HELDA bounded post-baseline check found no equivalent new use of force or durable settlement. The unresolved security baseline and direct U.S.–Venezuela dialogue persist without a new daily increment. The score holds at 26.

STABILIZING SIGNALSDirect dialogue remains open.

UNCERTAINTYNo verified election timetable or durable security settlement has emerged.

WHAT MOVES NEXTA concrete negotiated agreement or new confirmed use of force.