GLOBAL

DAILY · 08:00 ET

[ READ THE INDEX ]

Structured assessment. Not a forecast.

The index summarizes observable conflict signals. It does not calculate the probability of world war, predict specific events, or provide operational advice.

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What the score measures

Analysts assign regional scores using a fixed five-part framework. The global composite reflects the same signals while accounting for cross-theater spillover. Day-to-day movement matters more than false precision in any one number.

Kinetic activity30%
Direct state involvement25%
Geographic spread20%
Strategic signaling15%
Economic, cyber & infrastructure spillover10%

Score bands

0–19 BASELINEWithin recent regional norms.
20–39 WATCHPersistent signals with limited spread.
40–59 ELEVATEDMultiple reinforcing signals.
60–79 HIGHSustained or widening escalation.
80–100 ACUTEBroad, fast-moving escalation.

Source and confidence policy

Daily editions prioritize direct statements and documents from governments and international institutions, then corroborate them with reputable wire services and established reporting organizations. Claims that depend on a combatant's account are labeled and scored with additional uncertainty.

HIGH confidence means multiple credible sources or a reliable primary record. MEDIUM means the core event is well supported but key details remain disputed. LOW means available reporting is incomplete, conflicting, or heavily dependent on interested parties.

Cadence, corrections, limits

A new edition is prepared once daily at 08:00 Eastern Time. Earlier editions remain in the archive. Material corrections are appended with a timestamp rather than silently rewritten.

Scores simplify complex conditions and can change as reporting improves. BaileyX Global is an independent editorial monitor and does not provide safety, investment, legal, or military advice.